Good Idea! Now find a better one.

Americans are abandoning the moviegoing habit for good.

So says George Lucas to Variety. He thinks that to remain successful in the film business of the future, you need to create lots of quality content with smaller budgets for smaller audiences. The idea that you can spend a ton of money on production and marketing to create a hit is becoming harder and harder.

There’s some insightful commentary out there about the decline of movie attendance and the various forces of consumer choice in an ever expanding entertainment marketplace.

But what looms in my minds eye, however, is what will the movie theaters do? What will the 26 screen super-mega-multiplexes do 10 years from now? These are location based businesses, large fixed structures that record revenue per seat, per screen and per ridiculously priced half-filled box of gummi-bears.

Now, it’s all too common to take current trends, extrapolate them to absurdity and then proclaim that Doom is inevitable. There are too many variables for someone to predict the future, but there are always opportunities to create it.

Put Yourself Out of Business

If new technology or changing consumer preferences threatens to put you out of business. Put yourself out of business first. Why? So you can be the one to create the replacement.

Even if Hollywood was pumping out great movies every week, theaters would still need to change. So much of the theater experience can be duplicated at home without the common theater aggravations: High concessions prices, obnoxious movie-goers, crying babies, or, I kid you not, 20 minutes of advertising after the lights dim but before the movie begins (It is now common for me to forget what movie I came to see by the time it starts).

But there is still something that a theater can do that you cannot duplicate at home. And that is a room full of people to laugh, cry, cheer, jeer and applaud with. This is the core of what makes a theater valuable. This is why the building is there.

Give people something that is better enjoyed in a medium to large group that people can’t get anywhere else. Anything less and home theaters, DVD’s, Pay Per View, Digital Delivery, Youtube, iTunes Video etc. will thrash the theaters.

Scarcity

First up, fewer screenings. By setting a fuzzy time frame for when a movie is pulled from the theater they create less impetus to go see the film now and burn money during the trailing 3 person screenings.

Some poeple look at the trailer and immediately think, I’ll wait for the DVD. They won’t come to the theater. But the ones who are willing, get ‘em in here and get ‘em in now. If you can’t fill a quarter of the room, show somthing else.

Oldies but Goodies

I love the Ultra-Mega-Platinum Edition Digitally Remastered Re-release Directors Cut DVD’s as much as the next guy, buy why can’t I sit in front of a 30 foot screen with 50 strangers and watch Jaws? Or Aliens? Or My Fair Lady? Or Saving Private Ryan?

Only playing recent releases is an unnecessary handicap. There are too many great movies that people would love to watch in groups with a huge screen. And there are too many horrible movies that are so bad that they draw crowds out of morbid curiosity.

Here’s a thought: Would people pay to see 3 local comedians narrate bad movies? And on a Saturday night, would they be thirsty?

Movies aren’t the only thing on Film

Do you think Sex in the City or The Sopranos could have brought in a packed house each week to watch the new episode with other fans?

A failure on network television pulls in only 6.5 million viewers as recent dropout, but good show, Smith, found out. Hits can capture 30 million sets of eyeballs. The multiplexes leverage approximately $0 from that market.

Live And In Person

26 Screens + 26 bands + 26 bucks to get in the building. Who says you actually have to show movies every Friday?

Lectures, Seminars, Presentations, Mini Conferences, Training Sessions - get more of them in the building.

Plays, Poetry, Performance Art: It doesn’t need to fill 6 screens for 6 weeks, one screen for one night only can work just fine.

Just like Soldier Field but without the Wind

Put the screens at ESPN Zone and all the local sports bars to shame. Boxing, Baseball, Soccer, Tennis and of course, the Bears playing football. People enjoy sports in groups. They plan their schedules around viewing live sports. Put in on the screen and start selling hotwings and nachos.

Take a look at AMC

Reading throught the 10K for AMC Entertainment which owns the AMC and Loews theaters, we can get a glimse of AMC’s inner workings in light of our little brainstorming session:

We use a centralized structure for policy development, strategic planning, asset management, marketing, human resources, finance, accounting and information systems. These systems are managed at our corporate office located in Kansas City, Missouri.

We staff our theatres with personnel capable of making day-to-day operating decisions.

Not the best structure for trying out new ideas. What a more independent local manager can imagine for a theater in Miami, will most likely be different from the “strategic planners” back in Kansas City.

We predominantly license “first-run” motion pictures from distributors owned by major film production companies and from independent distributors.

How would Blues Brothers do on a downtown Chicago screen?

Our revenues are dependent upon the timing of motion picture releases by distributors. The most marketable motion pictures are usually released during the summer and the year-end holiday seasons. Therefore, our business can be seasonal, with higher attendance and revenues generally occurring during the summer months and holiday seasons

If Hollywood doesn’t give you enough outside of summer and the holidays, find additional sources. Attendance drops because movie-goers have fewer reasons to come, not because they suddenly dislike movie theaters.

The Future

I don’t think movie theaters are going anywhere. Even if they stagnate with antiquated command and control structures, people still want to get out of the house and do something. That may mean fewer theaters but they’ll still be there.

A more optimistic view is that while it might be difficult for an AMC to try something new, a smaller player can always come in and disrupt the marketplace.

Tags: George Lucas, film, movies, AMC, what if